Chris Loeliger
Windermere Real Estate/S.C.A., Inc
Chris Loeliger | Direct: 425-785-9217 | Email: cloeliger@windermere.com
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2010 Year End Statistics Part 1
Posted on January 6, 2011
The NWMLS recently released their statistics for December 2010. With the year complete I thought I would take a look at some of the details of the statistics and see how the market has changed in the last 12 months. I'm a bit of a statistics junkie. My original intent was to look at some more obscure statistics from the perspective of a typical agent/broker. But, I got distracted with some of the usual statistics. So, let's get those out of the way first and then I'll dig into the not talked about statistics.
You may have seen this report in the Seattle Times reporting on the very hot home sales recorded in December for King County. The number of sold houses were up from November 2010 and even or very close to the numbers from December 2009. (Prices were a different story.) Here's a complete list of the number of transactions and pricing that is associated with them.
I like to look at them from a high level and work my way down to the areas I typically work in. So, here's the entire NWMLS, all property types.
| Area Wide (Entire NWMLS with a few small exceptions) | ||||
| Dec-09 | Dec-10 | Change | Change % | |
| Number of agents | 23582 | 22133 | -1449 | -6.1% |
| Active listings | 32106 | 32114 | 8 | 0.0% |
| Median Price | $297,788.00 | $255,000.00 | $42,788.00 | -14.4% |
| Average price | $431,875.00 | $376,185.00 | $55,690.00 | -12.9% |
| Pending Listings | 4399 | 4359 | -40 | -0.9% |
| Median Price | $265,000.00 | $255,000.00 | $10,000.00 | -3.8% |
| Average price | $321,775.00 | $319,461.00 | $2,314.00 | -0.7% |
| Closed listings | 4711 | 4426 | -285 | -6.0% |
| Median Price | $259,950.00 | $234,000.00 | $25,950.00 | -10.0% |
| Average price | $320,196.00 | $294,006.00 | $26,190.00 | -8.2% |
I'm not concerned with the pricing. That is what it is and there's nothing we can do about it. Not that we can do anything about any of these numbers but the ones I am more concerned with are the numbers of listings, pendings, and solds. On the surface some of those numbers are disheartening. Active listings are basically equal to last December. Pending listings and closed listings are down 0.9 and 6.0 percent. Those are the numbers I would have liked to see go up. But, given where we were the middle of this year (after the tax credit expired) I think these are extremely positive numbers.
| King County | ||||
| Dec-09 | Dec-10 | Change | Change % | |
| Number of agents | 11955 | 11503 | -452 | -3.8% |
| Active listings | 9652 | 10049 | 397 | 4.1% |
| Median Price | $374,950.00 | $306,000.00 | $68,950.00 | -18.4% |
| Average price | $602,394.00 | $503,610.00 | $98,784.00 | -16.4% |
| Pending Listings | 1767 | 1719 | -48 | -2.7% |
| Median Price | $324,950.00 | $299,975.00 | $24,975.00 | -7.7% |
| Average price | $411,055.00 | $387,852.00 | $23,203.00 | -5.6% |
| Closed listings | 1795 | 1776 | -19 | -1.1% |
| Median Price | $350,000.00 | $342,400.00 | $7,600.00 | -2.2% |
| Average price | $411,055.00 | $387,852.00 | $23,203.00 | -5.6% |
| *Single Family Residences and Condominiums only | ||||
King County is interesting compared to the NWMLS as a whole. The listing prices are down sharply compared to the NWMLS but the closed prices are down mildly from last year as compared to the NWMLS as a whole. I don't have a spiffy explanation for that. If you do please speak up. Again, I'm looking more at the numbers of transactions and again, some of the number seem disheartening. The active listings are up 4.1 percent and the pending and closed transactions are down 2.7 percent and 1.1 percent respectively.
I focus my work on the Eastside (Sammamish and Redmond) when possible so I created identical tables for those two areas.
| Area 540 (East of Lake Sammamish) | ||||
| Dec-09 | Dec-10 | Change | Change % | |
| Number of agents | - | - | ||
| Active listings | 618 | 726 | 108 | 17.5% |
| Median Price | $477,000.00 | $424,900.00 | $52,100.00 | -10.9% |
| Average price | $667,142.00 | $579,296.00 | $87,846.00 | -13.2% |
| Pending Listings | 131 | 138 | 7 | 5.3% |
| Median Price | $449,950.00 | $429,990.00 | $19,960.00 | -4.4% |
| Average price | $519,003.00 | $464,991.00 | $54,012.00 | -10.4% |
| Closed listings | 136 | 157 | 21 | 15.4% |
| Median Price | $499,495.00 | $444,000.00 | $55,495.00 | -11.1% |
| Average price | $540,203.00 | $477,899.00 | $62,304.00 | -11.5% |
| *Single Family Residences and Condominiums only | ||||
| Area 550 (Redmond/Carnation) | ||||
| Dec-09 | Dec-10 | Change | Change % | |
| Number of agents | - | - | ||
| Active listings | 1569 | 1510 | -59 | -3.8% |
| Median Price | $502,102.00 | $459,975.00 | $42,127.00 | -8.4% |
| Average price | $614,740.00 | $600,366.00 | $14,374.00 | -2.3% |
| Pending Listings | 64 | 44 | -20 | -31.3% |
| Median Price | $491,555.00 | $473,750.00 | $17,805.00 | -3.6% |
| Average price | $480,543.00 | $475,350.00 | $5,193.00 | -1.1% |
| Closed listings | 73 | 70 | -3 | -4.1% |
| Median Price | $399,950.00 | $462,500.00 | $62,550.00 | 15.6% |
| Average price | $442,266.00 | $498,306.00 | $56,040.00 | 12.7% |
| *Single Family Residences and Condominiums only | ||||
For two areas that are close by and fairly similar these tables tell two different stories. In Sammamish the active listings are up sharply, the pending listings are up nicely and the closed listings are also up sharply. Alternatively, in Redmond, the active listings are down, the pending listings are down sharply, and the closed listings are also down. The standout numbers in those tables are the price increases in Redmond. Median and average prices are up 15.6 and 12.7 percent. That's really due to some very low prices posted last year more than incredible high prices this year.
Those two tables probably tell the story of being a buyer or seller as much as anything else does. There is simply no consistency. Buyers and sellers both want to know what's the right price? What are the chances my house will sell? How long will it take? It's tough to answer those questions in a stable market and darn near impossible to answer them in an inconsistent market.
If you or someone you know are thinking of buying or selling your home this year and would like some help deciphering the market, setting a good price, and making for a smooth transaction, please contact me.
Meanwhile, hang tight, I'll have my look at some of the more offbeat statistics up here shortly. I did sneak one or two of them in these tables if you look closely. Let me know if there is anything in particular that you want to see.
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